Jamee Adams

For this week's surprise statement I am writing about the New Yorker piece The Really Big One. I found this article very fun to read, and as I was thinking about why, I realized it had to do with the drama that it presented. This piece presented the big earthquake set to hit the Pacific Northwest as a monster that would demolish our coast, like so many years ago, and turn it into a ghost forest of the future. As "fun" as it is to read such a dramatic story, it made me think about the way that a topic like a natural disaster is presented to the public. I find that some scientists, when talking about climate change for example, tend to exaggerate to get people to pay more attention to an issue, when in actuality the impact of the topic is still virtually unknown. This drama is used as a way to capture attention and interest, but sometimes it makes me wonder if it leaves people with more of a sense of despair than curiosity to go out and learn more about the topic as is maybe the hope of the presenter.

Rayn Allen

This week I really enjoyed The New Yorker article about earthquakes. I knew about the San Andreas fault and that it’s expected to have a big earthquake relatively soon but I had never heard that the Cascadia subduction zone has earthquakes or that it’s also due to have a big one. It sounds like it’s possible that when that one goes off it could potentially trigger the San Andreas as well which would mean two bad earthquakes one after the other. I remember seeing a movie a few years ago about San Andreas and thinking it was an over exaggeration but after reading what might happen with the Cascadia it sounds like it might actually be worse than that movie suggested.

Anna Bakker

My surprise statement this week will be about the Murnane and Liu’s Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future.

In the preface of this book, the authors define “paleotempestology” as the study/dating of tropical cyclones.  Then they go on to name all the different ways you can use the aftereffects of cyclones as proxies for dates of when the event occurred.  I never knew that these effects could even be used to date cyclone patterns in the past, so this was extremely fascinating!  Disruptions in both biologic and geologic records like overwash deposits, tree rings, oxygen isotopic concentrations, and sediments are used to determine when disasters happened.  The most interesting one to me was the tree ring record.  I never knew that the distance between rings was significant, but they state that when tree branches get broken off (and the leaves along with it), the photosynthetic capability of the tree goes down, which will show up as a narrower distance between rings.  It’s amazing how people come up with ways to date events in the past and I’m glad that Murnane and Liu have found a way to date tropical cyclone events.  Maybe we can use models to predict when disasters will happen in the future…

Frigyes (Mano) Barkovics

For this week’s Surprise Statement, I would like to reflect on The Really Big One article by The New Yorker written by Kathryn Schulz. This article perfectly describes why people on the West Coast (us!) are extremely concerned once the fault lines starts to drastically slide and essentially causing one of the largest earthquake in human history. On top of that it will also remove a big portion of the North West, our home, so we will be the first one to experience this chains of disasters, but this is just all being skeptical, or is it? According to the article quite a few people believes that this unstoppable chain of events already has begun and in ‘literal’ motion, but puns aside I found it intriguing yet concerned that back in 2005 a Japanese geologist Yasutaka Ikeda, was able to predict an upcoming 9.0 earthquake in Japan just by piecing together the pieces of these chains of events. But then again, everyone can make a bold prediction and sometimes it’s only luck, although we wouldn’t be so lucky if it actually unfolds like the prediction, right? Unfortunately, Ikeda’s prediction came true when the magnitude-9.0 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and subsequent tsunami killed thousands of people, triggered the meltdown at the Fukushima power plant which not only cause local damages but also worldwide changes in radiation levels due to the leaks that got into our ocean.

No one in Japan was prepared for these kinds of events so what does this mean to us with our fault lines in our front porch? People here and there have predictions about when the ultimate ‘big one’ is going to happen, and it’s not doubtful that its already in progress but since it’s so unpredictable it can range from just a few years to hundreds of years. None the less it is extremely concerning after I developed an application that advises people after disasters.

There I interviewed people around the Seattle community and concluded that the overall participants are weakly prepared for any kinds of disasters and that majority of them doesn’t even know how to request an aid after the disaster (This is where our app came into action). But none the less once the San Andreas Fault and the Cascadia Subduction Zone begins to rumble we, as a society need to come up with a plan that everyone understands and potentially minimizing the damage and the after effects of this upcoming disastrous disaster.

Signe Bergman

I was surprised by several items within the Law of the Sea document. The idea of states claiming “offshore artificial islands” as a usage right in the ocean was strange. I thought I heard of China wanting to make a “garbage island” but I couldn’t find anything after searching for information on it. I was also surprised that the United States is not among the majority of states that are parties to the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. Why?

Adam Binford

It's amazingly scary to think about how at any time we could experience a massively destructive earthquake. In the article it said a possible result is the total destruction of everything west of I-5. I have many friends living on that side of Seattle. What will happen to them if this quake comes while they're in the area? I know articles typically exaggerate things like this, but it's still scary to think about.

Marisa Borreggine

Regarding hurricanes/earthquakes readings:

I am surprised not at the readings this week, which I have seen before, but rather at people's reactions to readings like these. It amazes me how quickly people/journalists take a piece of scientific research and sensationalize it for popular press and attention. It really bothers me every time someone brings up 'the big one' how sensationalized their facts are, and how their sources, though supposedly reputable, have the same facts too. I explain SO often to people how skewed the average time period between the 'big earthquake' is. I think this article (New Yorker) does a good job of communicating hard topics to a layman's audience, but does so in too much of a 'we're all going to die' way. MB

Lisa Burk

I have actually read these first two articles previously, The Orphan Tsunami and The Really Big One. I was told that the purpose of the first article was to dramaticise the earthquake we are predicted to witness in this lifetime. I think they did a really good job! I love the poetic way the gentleman is refering to the event and how it almost seems like a humerous daydream. I am actually most scared by natural disaster, and I have a lot of questions about the 9er that we may witness. I have not had any preparedness training, and there is a lot to know even if you are not a doomsday preper. The imagry compilation is also familiar to me from my geology 100 class, and it is wrenching. I am amazed people survive this and document it, and horrified for them as well. I was interested by the 50 facts about hurricanes, and I did not know that these phenomena were all the same thing yet in different regions called by different things such as cyclones. There is a lot if new information for me here, though some of it is just dates and names.

Oren Cox

I recently began playing a video game titled “Subnautica”. In this game, you must survive by crafting materials, items, and eventually buildings and vehicles. The catch is that the entire game takes place on an alien planet that is comprised entirely of one planetary ocean. The game ocean is full of color and is vibrant with a wide variety of alien life. The shear artistic beauty of the game proves that the oceans remain a constant source of artistic creativity, even for modern artists using more modern mediums.

Frances Eshom-Arzadon

After reading “The Really Big One”, I can’t believe the city of Seattle seems to not be taking substantial action to prepare us for this potential catastrophe. The article was very interesting and concerning to me; and I’m sure it got a lot of attention when it first came out, but I wonder how we can keep the concern high and decision-makers active in trying to make our city ready and safe long after a major story comes out.

I also just want to mention that I was really surprised by the Japan tsunami footage! The waves did not look as large as I have always imagined tsunami waves to be. And I was surprised at how many people appeared to just be standing around recording the event.

Kate Griffin

‘The Big One’ article discussed our proclivity to imagine and romanticize horrific, yet very possible scenarios instead of spending those resources to develop solutions and plans to avoid these disastrous outcomes. In discussing this tendency, it is necessary to acknowledge the role of consumers in this and the rooted meaning behind that consumer demand. I was and am terrified of the impending earthquake that will bring catastrophe to my home and everywhere I’ve ever lived. However, I looked into what Seattle is doing to prepare and I was somewhat happy to find action being taken by large and local businesses/foundations giving money to progress innovation in these plans. One example I found was the use of GPS, which can measure the highest magnitude earthquakes faster and more accurately than seismometers. Beyond that, I truly hope it isn’t too little to late because we are vulnerable by design in Seattle. I truly would’ve imagined there being a more publicized initiative to develop an alert system and evacuation plans here.

Side note: I am interested in finding out the impact of hurricanes, earthquakes and other natural disasters on ocean ecology.

Zach Parker

I read the article about the Cascadia Earthquake. Very disturbing how ill prepared we are for this disaster. It makes me think of global warming too, because our way of dealing with the danger is the same in both respects. If we don't know exactly when something terrible will occur we tend to sort of put it out of our minds. The fact that besides all the damage on land from the shaking, the tsunami will destroy roughly everything up to I-5 on the west coast. That's catastrophic, many hospitals, roads, police departments, fire stations, vital infrastructure which seems to be mostly aggregated near the ocean to support the population would be demolished. We have done little to nothing to prepare for it just like global warming. It could happen in another 1000 years sure, but it's going to happen. Climate change may be slow and not at first obvious, but the effects are widespread and more catastrophic than the earthquake. I am so worried about the state of our politics, I feel this urge to try to find a job outside the US to work somewhere that people respect and take science seriously. At the same time I feel obligated to stay and try to see this darkness through to better times. I think that if America turned around and started leading the world using science and logic it would make a far greater and faster impact than any other country. We certainly have the resources for it, but they are wasted on infighting and a mindset of scarcity. We are so gullible to the elites running this country, almost nobody knows how like cattle we are. Being fed biased information to yield (predictable) votes and opinions, then charged with all of the taxes and fees. All the while the vast majority of knowledge and wealth is kept out of our reach lest we turn the tables on the system and impeach those in power or divert their wealth, or reduce their tax breaks. Betsy DeVoss was confirmed today to be the Secretary of Education and I wish everyone could watch the hearing, she obviously knows very little about the job ahead of her and her family has donated about 200 million dollars to the Trump Administration. These are the kinds of people we will have to fight for the right to be educated about what is really going on in this world.

Alyssa Scott

Ahhh, I almost forgot how much anxiety The Really Big One article brings me. I often think about this article - perhaps much more than I should. I can't help but see the tall buildings downtown and imagine them not there in 50 years. Or appreciate Pike's Place a little more. Or visit SAM once more. Now, I know that the article is way out of proportion and a lot of the info is hyperbolic, but the fact that there will definitely be a large(r) magnitude earthquake hitting the coast of Washington (likely) in the next 50 years, is enough of a reason to worry about the unpreparedness of Seattle and other large neighboring cities.

Part of me is glad that this article is hyperbolic because it scarred me to the point where I think about it often. However, I do wonder if the fact that it was hyperbolized causes readers to take it with a too-big of a grain of salt and dismiss the potentially devastating situation all together.

Anna Sulc

What could my interest this week is the various ways we study the earth and how myths and legends often embody facts about the earth and clues about geology, chemistry or biology. Many of the things we know about Cascadis today came from consulting ancient cultures after having reached the limits of what science could tell us. In the case of Washington, much of the first evidence about large magnitude earthquakes came from asking about myths transferred past generations. Not only does this raise the question of just how much paleo-science should really be based on simple measurements of the core and crust but it has also made me wonder if there have been any other discoveries made thanks to a detailed analysis of stories in antiquity and other ancient societies from a scientific standpoint rather than a historical one. Finally: what did ancient cultures think of these events? How much did they really know? Could they predict them to a certain extent (oracles and prophets predicting?)?

Byron Walker

I loved the readings for this week. particularly the New Yorker article on "The Big One". and excellent example of creative and engaging and (mostly accurate) science, though it leads itself to some exaggeration, hyperbole and hysteria.  I also really like the 50 Hurricane facts and the information about Krakatoa. I was unaware of the extent of damage that Hurricanes and typhoons caused. It really is incredible. I wonder what sort of construction or infrastructural methods may be used to mitigate damage from future storms.‍